Clearly, how much longer lockdown continues is going to be critical in terms of setting the tone of recovery.

I been working with a good friend, Robert Hillman, ex Bank of England and Brevan Howard, who runs modeler Neuron Capital. (He also a sailor, and we live in the same village!) There are plenty of models out there, and all suffer cover samsung galaxy 8 plus from the lack of real data, especially here in UK. However, Neuron latest analyses confirm the costs from relaxing too soon will be high in terms of second custodia per tablet samsung 10.5 wave risk, but the benefits from waiting an extra month are even higher!

Their latest modelling shows that if we wanted to relax gran neo plus samsung custodia cover current restrictions by 40% then waiting an extra month could reduce the chance of a 2nd wave from around 80% to as low as 25%. cover samsung galaxy a7 2018 marvel The reason that patience is so important is that chance of a second outbreak is so sensitive to the all important R0 number. The silliest thing of all would be to push it down to custodia nera samsung j7 2016 1.1 and then relax things and watch it shoot up!

The hard thing will be trying convert from the models what a relaxation of 40% actually means in the real world. Other countries are being much more explicit about the range of relaxation measures already. Neuron expects the UK government will start publishing more information soon to help manage expectations.

I suspect we are looking at Mid May as the optimal time to start reopening UK Inc! It will give Boris something to pull the country back together when he returns today.

But does that mean immediate boom There is bound to be a bounce factor, before economic reality re establishes itself.

1) Let start with economic damage.

There are still a number of commentators who argue for a variation on the V Shaped recover (or a thin U). Their case is the global economy will swiftly recover because nothing has been destroyed. All the assets of production, global supply and distribution chains, remain essentially in place waiting to be switched on again. It simply a matter of waiting for economies to reopen, lockdowns to end and a vaccine in 8 18 months to end the COVID threat.

That a punchy argument and unlikely to happen cleanly.

I don have the space the morning to argue every point, but samsung j4 custodia when 18% custodia cover samsung j5 2016 keep calm silicone samsung j3 of the global economy Tourism, Hospitality and Aerospace could be samsung galaxy note 9 custodia shuttered for years, that bound to have knock on effects.

KLM/AirFrance are getting Euro 11 bln to stay afloat (), Lufthansa is begging a similar package in Germany, Norwegian (yet again) is on the brink of bankruptcy, and Virgin boss Richard Branson is learning the consequences of tax exile. Airbus is warning it could go down as orders and demand plummets. Rolls Royce and GE engines are in serious trouble as no one want engines. custodia samsung j7 2015 Hotels, pubs and restaurants around the globe employing 10% of the global workforce could be shut for months, and take years to recover.

When lockdowns end, samsung a cover samsung galaxi j 5 5 2017 custodia that when we find out just how much easier it is to close an economy than it is to reopen it. When 40 million consumers are suddenly out of work, and most of the rest have taken paycuts, how are spenders going to drive a demand driven recovery

2) Let think about Debt Finance

Over the past few weeks we seen record issuance in public bond markets. Since global Central Banks initiated unlimited QEI (QE Infinity) programmes over March/April, allowing them to buy most public bonds and bond ETFs, we seen a deluge of new corporate debt hit the markets custodia samsung j7 duos over $450 bln I reckon in Europe and the US. Its increasingly been issuers custodia silicone j3 2016 samsung in the BBB cusp of junk rating band samsung ace 4 custodia that have been able to tap the market.

In addition, nearly every large corporate around the globe has drawn down all its bank financing lines, putting cash in place to sustain themselves through lengthy shutdown and diminished business.

Effectively, large corporates cover samsung j3 2016 3d able to access bank lending and public markets have been saved in the short term by QEI programmes. But, at what cost See below.

3) What about government support to business

Most of the custodia morbida tablet samsung galaxy tab a6 bank drawdowns and new public debt has been raised by large companies. The SME sector lacks such immediate access to finance it been forced to rely on government emergency support packages. We seen that work with various degress of effectiveness. In the UK the banks, who run the system, have responded with lethargy, unwilling to lend, and wrapping requests in red tape. (The last thing they want is rising corporate exposure when they expect the highest corporate custodia samsung s7 edge plus debt defaults in history.) In other countries greedy larger companies managed to trough their greedy snouts into money intended for SMEs the US in particular.

The result is large companies have been able to seize a far larger slice of the available emergency fund pie than SMEs. That is going to result in a long term mis balance in the economy. SMEs are far more likely to go bust as a result.

Some people have argued the COVID 19 is akin to a massive meteor strike on the global economy. It not. Had that been the case, then large over=levered Zombie companies would have died out and been replaced by smaller nimbler SMEs eating their niches. What happening this time is not business evolution its de evolution as the large inefficient dinosaurs are allowed to survive and the nimble smaller smarter SMEs get crushed.

4) What about Markets

Ask yourself: what custodia silicone samsung j6 the point in buying zero or negative yield Government Bonds Or buying high risk BBB bonds when the only reason for buying them is the cover samsung s4 mini juventus Fed is buying them They still yield very little, and although spreads will tighten as a result of QEI, they don produce meaningfull returns.

Where should you invest instead

What about stocks The stock markets comprise large companies who have been able to access bond market and government money! But they are also now highly overleveraged, burdened for the future and likely to suffer from increasing oversight as governments seek to show they care about Moral Hazard by restraining dividends, pay structures etc. Government interventions will make for a less efficient market. In the last crisis it was banks that suffered from governments and regulators trying to run them. This time the list will be much wider.

Some stocks will do genuinely well those that thrive through the crisis like food retail, online delivery and entertainment, and especially those with large cash reserves able to keep leverage low, and see to make cheap acquisitions or create whole new markets in the wake of the crisis. That one reason the current equity bull rally in a bear market is so loaded on certain cash rich and advantaged Tech stocks. Disclosure time: my own portfolio is long Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, custodia tablet samsung galaxi a6 Amazon, Tencent, some others and my 6 Tesla shares which I really should get rid of…